The following is an analysis of the changes in the gold market in 2025:

I. Price Trend: Operating at Historically High Levels

1. International gold price: As of November 2025, the international gold price broke through $4,200 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 50% this year, and continued to set new historical highs.

2. Domestic gold prices: The price of branded pure gold jewelry has exceeded 1,200 yuan/gram across the board, an increase of about 50% since the beginning of the year, and the price difference between gold and raw gold has widened further.

3. Driving factors:

(1). The decline in trust in the US dollar: The surge in US national debt and the erosion of the dollar's credit foundation highlight the value of gold as a "safe-haven hard currency".

(2). Central bank gold buying spree: Global central banks continue to strategically increase their gold reserves, reducing the liquidity of physical gold in the market and increasing the sensitivity of gold prices.

(3). Geopolitical risks: Regional conflicts and uncertainties exacerbate market risk aversion, making gold an important tool for hedging systemic risks.

(4). Inflation stickiness: A persistent inflationary environment strengthens gold's anti-inflationary properties, attracting investors to allocate their assets to the sector.

II. Consumer Side: Significant Structural Differentiation

1. Jewelry consumption is sluggish:

Data: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; the value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching US$41 billion (driven by rising gold prices).

Reason: High gold prices have suppressed demand for traditional heavy gold jewelry, leading consumers to shift towards lightweight, high-value-added products.

2. Explosive growth in investment demand:

Gold bars and coins: Consumption in the first three quarters reached 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%, with investment demand exceeding decorative demand for the first time (accounting for 52.3%).

Gold ETF: The size of domestic gold ETF has surged to 170.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211%, becoming a major channel for ordinary investors to enter the market.

3. The rise of young consumers:

The main consumer group: the ownership rate of gold jewelry among consumers aged 18-24 has soared from 37% five years ago to 62%, with the younger generation driving their gold purchasing behavior through a combination of "self-indulgent consumption" and "stable savings".

III. Supply Side: Resource Development and Technological Innovation

1. Gold supply from mines:

In 2024, global gold production was 3,661.2 tons, accounting for 74% of total supply; as of the end of 2023, global proven gold resources were approximately 132,000 tons, which could be mined for another 30 years.

Key Chinese projects are progressing: The preliminary assessment of the Dadonggou Gold Mine in Liaoning Province indicates a resource volume of nearly 1,500 tons, which is expected to make it a world-class gold mine; the auxiliary shaft of the Sanshandao Gold Mine has reached a depth of 2,005 meters, breaking through the technology for ultra-deep mine construction.

2. Industrial gold demand:

Technological breakthroughs in fields such as electronics, new energy, AI chips, and hydrogen fuel cells have driven a steady recovery in industrial gold consumption, but its total share remains relatively small (approximately 7%).

IV. Central Bank Gold Purchases: Strategic Reserves and De-Dollarization

1. Global Central Bank Gold Purchase Trends:

In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks’ net gold purchases totaled 634 tons, which is lower than the unusually high level of the past three years (1,045 tons in 2024), but still significantly higher than the average level before 2022 (about 400-500 tons/year).

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with reserves rising by 30,000 ounces to 74.09 million ounces at the end of October, in order to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves and diversify the risks of dollar assets.

2. Motivation for purchasing gold:

Geopolitical risks: Increased uncertainty in the international environment and the role of gold as the "ultimate means of payment" enhance the credibility of sovereign currencies.

RMB internationalization: Increasing gold holdings creates favorable conditions for the steady and prudent advancement of RMB internationalization.

V. Fluctuations in gold prices have a significant impact on the cost of optical modules. The following is a detailed analysis:

A. The core role and cost percentage of gold in optical modules

Due to its excellent conductivity, corrosion resistance, and stability, gold is mainly used in electroplating processes in optical modules (such as connectors and interfaces) to ensure the reliability and durability of signal transmission.

Although the amount of gold used in a single optical module is relatively small, the cost of gold can still be an important variable when mass production is carried out.

For example, the electroplating of hard gold or chemical gold at the gold fingers of a PCB must reach a certain thickness to meet the requirements of wear resistance and good signal transmission .

B. The specific impact of gold price fluctuations on costs

1. Direct cost transmission

Rising gold prices will directly increase the cost of raw materials in the electroplating process. Gold prices in 2025 are expected to rise by more than 50% compared to the beginning of the year, putting significant pressure on costs.

Cost pressures mainly come from two parts:

* Optical component pins plated with gold

* PCB plated with thick gold

2. Indirect impact: Supply chain and inventory management

Fluctuations in gold prices can trigger a chain reaction across the supply chain. For example, suppliers may raise prices due to increased costs, or companies may need to adjust their inventory strategies (such as reducing inventory to mitigate the risk of price drops), further impacting cost structures.

If you choose an optical module supplier and they haven't raised prices, please cherish that opportunity, because they are facing the dual pressure of rising costs and falling prices!

ETU-Link Technology Co., Ltd. has always adhered to providing high-quality products and craftsmanship to create a promising future market development prospect.